{ "axis": [ "2026-06-10", "2026-06-11", "2026-06-12", "2026-06-13", "2026-06-14", "2026-06-15", "2026-06-16", "2026-06-17", "2026-06-18", "2026-06-19", "2026-06-20", "2026-06-21", "2026-06-22", "2026-06-23", "2026-06-24", "2026-06-25", "2026-06-26", "2026-06-27", "2026-06-28", "2026-06-29", "2026-06-30", "2026-07-01", "2026-07-02", "2026-07-03", "2026-07-04", "2026-07-05", "2026-07-06", "2026-07-07", "2026-07-08", "2026-07-09", "2026-07-10", "2026-07-11", "2026-07-12", "2026-07-13", "2026-07-14", "2026-07-15", "2026-07-16", "2026-07-17", "2026-07-18", "2026-07-19", "2026-07-20", "2026-07-21", "2026-07-22", "2026-07-23", "2026-07-24", "2026-07-25", "2026-07-26", "2026-07-27", "2026-07-28", "2026-07-29", "2026-07-30", "2026-07-31", "2026-08-01", "2026-08-02", "2026-08-03", "2026-08-04", "2026-08-05", "2026-08-06", "2026-08-07", "2026-08-08", "2026-08-09", "2026-08-10", "2026-08-11", "2026-08-12", "2026-08-13", "2026-08-14", "2026-08-15", "2026-08-16", "2026-08-17", "2026-08-18", "2026-08-19", "2026-08-20", "2026-08-21", "2026-08-22", "2026-08-23", "2026-08-24", "2026-08-25", "2026-08-26", "2026-08-27", "2026-08-28", "2026-08-29", "2026-08-30", "2026-08-31", "2026-09-01", "2026-09-02", "2026-09-03", "2026-09-04", "2026-09-05", "2026-09-06", "2026-09-07", "2026-09-08", "2026-09-09", "2026-09-10", "2026-09-11", "2026-09-12", "2026-09-13", "2026-09-14", "2026-09-15", "2026-09-16", "2026-09-17", "2026-09-18", "2026-09-19", "2026-09-20", "2026-09-21", "2026-09-22", "2026-09-23", "2026-09-24", "2026-09-25", "2026-09-26", "2026-09-27", "2026-09-28", "2026-09-29", "2026-09-30" ], "benchmarks": { "record_1998": 265.68, "record_1998_cutoff": 193.39, "season_2008": 193.86, "season_2008_cutoff": 98.73 }, "contract_version": "1.0.0", "current": { "cumulative": 156.53, "daily": 1.43, "date": "2026-08-15", "operated": true }, "curves": { "champion_path_illustrative": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24, 0.47, 0.47, 0.82, 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null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null ], "record_1998": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3, 0.6, 0.6, 0.91, 0.91, 0.91, 0.91, 0.91, 1.22, 1.22, 1.22, 1.67, 2.13, 2.13, 2.74, 3.02, 3.02, 3.65, 3.95, 3.95, 5.11, 7.76, 8.66, 11.12, 13.85, 16.06, 16.51, 17.43, 18.8, 19.26, 21.37, 24.56, 26.76, 29.47, 34.33, 38.12, 46.61, 52.52, 60.25, 65.12, 66.92, 73.61, 78.12, 89.54, 101.25, 112.55, 122.93, 130.29, 134.49, 141.51, 148.16, 156.36, 159.89, 164.75, 168.61, 171.56, 175.97, 178.19, 180.45, 183.15, 186.1, 189.46, 193.39, 195.25, 201.42, 204.16, 209.01, 213.07, 215.33, 217.04, 218.4, 220.12, 221.99, 225.63, 227.0, 228.88, 231.27, 232.72, 234.56, 234.56, 235.82, 236.13, 237.93, 240.96, 242.34, 243.24, 244.61, 248.18, 249.98, 252.14, 252.45, 254.3, 257.36, 259.53, 260.46, 260.46, 260.93, 262.35, 262.82, 263.28, 264.71, 264.71, 264.71, 264.71, 265.19, 265.19, 265.19, 265.68, 265.68 ], "season_2008": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22, 0.67, 0.9, 1.36, 1.36, 1.36, 1.36, 1.7, 2.36, 2.36, 2.36, 3.21, 4.53, 5.8, 7.23, 9.39, 11.1, 11.54, 11.85, 12.49, 14.35, 16.68, 18.64, 20.19, 21.92, 24.05, 26.08, 28.06, 29.25, 33.5, 38.19, 42.48, 47.17, 48.85, 51.22, 52.89, 56.33, 58.49, 61.3, 65.33, 68.38, 69.92, 73.43, 79.72, 86.91, 91.31, 94.8, 98.73, 101.84, 101.84, 103.56, 112.47, 115.52, 119.57, 121.02, 123.12, 126.0, 127.46, 132.74, 135.8, 139.36, 147.58, 151.08, 154.25, 161.97, 164.87, 168.33, 174.1, 177.25, 178.34, 179.07, 180.51, 181.23, 181.23, 181.95, 183.02, 183.76, 184.47, 185.55, 187.39, 189.18, 190.96, 191.68, 192.77, 193.5, 193.5, 193.5, 193.5, 193.86, 193.86, 193.86, 193.86, 193.86, 193.86 ] }, "cutoff_index": 66, "data_through": "2026-08-15", "forecast": { "backtest": { "post2002_completion_climatology": { "median_abs_pct": 17.7, "n": 24, "rmse_log": 0.2595 }, "post2002_shape_analog": { "median_abs_pct": 14.0, "n": 24, "rmse_log": 0.225 } }, "calibration_log": -0.072721, "completion_baseline_point": 220.63, "display_point": 210, "historical_completion_range": { "label": "central 80% of post-2002 same-date completion outcomes", "n": 24, "p10": 190.14, "p50": 220.83, "p90": 309.79, "type": "descriptive_historical_range_not_predictive_interval", "years": "2002-2025" }, "limitations": [ "The historical completion range is descriptive, not a calibrated predictive interval.", "1998 is a pre-2002 gear-regime comparison and is not used in the primary model.", "No index-to-fish abundance conversion is published because conversion uncertainty is unmodeled.", "No Aug 30 or late-September timing probability is published because timing paths are not independently validated." ], "point": 211.2, "primary_model": "post-2002 historical-shape analog with robust multiplicative calibration", "raw_analog_point": 227.13, "scenarios": { "1998_pre2002_ratio": 215.04, "2008_post2002_ratio": 307.35, "long_run_mean_ratio": 228.73, "post2002_completion_median": 220.63, "primary_post2002_analog": 211.2 }, "sensitivities": { "frozen_v0_equal_ensemble": 215.31, "pooled_1956_2025_analog": 210.12, "post2002_analog_calibrated": 211.2, "post2002_analog_raw": 227.13, "post2002_completion_climatology": 220.63 }, "target": "final reported aggregate Tyee steelhead index", "tournament": [ { "completion_climatology": { "median_abs_pct": 29.4, "n": 24, "rmse_log": 0.4983 }, "date": "2026-07-31", "shape_analog": { "median_abs_pct": 29.2, "n": 24, "rmse_log": 0.5358 } }, { "completion_climatology": { "median_abs_pct": 17.7, "n": 24, "rmse_log": 0.2595 }, "date": "2026-08-15", "shape_analog": { "median_abs_pct": 14.0, "n": 24, "rmse_log": 0.225 } }, { "completion_climatology": { "median_abs_pct": 5.8, "n": 24, "rmse_log": 0.1086 }, "date": "2026-08-31", "shape_analog": { "median_abs_pct": 5.2, "n": 24, "rmse_log": 0.1003 } } ] }, "guide_2026": { "label": "2026 champion estimate overlaid as a guide, not a rank", "point": 211.2, "range_high": 309.79, "range_low": 190.14 }, "issue_id": "issue-867339e71b7fac3139cf268f4eea19e80656a947379d72ad8c150ea957f85fbf", "issued_at": "2026-08-16T21:00:00+00:00", "layers": [ { "id": 1, "name": "Aggregate Tyee run", "status": "research_estimate", "summary": "Official daily index, champion forecast, frozen baseline, descriptive range, tournament, ledger." }, { "id": 2, "name": "Stock composition and reach inventory", "status": "unavailable", "summary": "No 2026 stock or destination evidence. Named-reach inventory is not connected." }, { "id": 3, "name": "River conditions and fishability", "status": "not_connected", "summary": "Flow, temperature, and clarity feeds are not connected. No fishability score is published." }, { "id": 4, "name": "Encounter outlook", "status": "unavailable", "summary": "No denominator-complete encounter panel exists. Catch-rate forecasts are not published." } ], "ledger": [ { "issue_id": "2026-08-15-loo-equal-ensemble-v2", "issued_at": "2026-08-16T10:03:53-06:00", "model_version": "loo-equal-ensemble-v2", "point": 215.31, "range_high": 274.24, "range_low": 169.01, "range_type": "legacy model-derived central 80% predictive distribution", "status": "superseded", "supersedes": null }, { "issue_id": "2026-08-15-post2002-analog-completion-v1.0.0", "issued_at": "2026-08-16T11:18:59-06:00", "model_version": "post2002-analog-completion-v1.0.0", "point": 211.2, "range_high": 309.79, "range_low": 190.14, "range_type": "descriptive_historical_range_not_predictive_interval", "status": "superseded", "supersedes": "2026-08-15-loo-equal-ensemble-v2" }, { "issue_id": "issue-867339e71b7fac3139cf268f4eea19e80656a947379d72ad8c150ea957f85fbf", "issued_at": "2026-08-16T21:00:00+00:00", "model_version": "post2002-analog-completion-v1.0.0", "point": 211.2, "range_high": 309.79, "range_low": 190.14, "range_type": "descriptive_historical_range_not_predictive_interval", "status": "current", "supersedes": "2026-08-15-post2002-analog-completion-v1.0.0" } ], "model_version": "post2002-analog-completion-v1.0.0", "month_days": [ "06-10", "06-11", "06-12", "06-13", "06-14", "06-15", "06-16", "06-17", "06-18", "06-19", "06-20", "06-21", "06-22", "06-23", "06-24", "06-25", "06-26", "06-27", "06-28", "06-29", "06-30", "07-01", "07-02", "07-03", "07-04", "07-05", "07-06", "07-07", "07-08", "07-09", "07-10", "07-11", "07-12", "07-13", "07-14", "07-15", "07-16", "07-17", "07-18", "07-19", "07-20", "07-21", "07-22", "07-23", "07-24", "07-25", "07-26", "07-27", "07-28", "07-29", "07-30", "07-31", "08-01", "08-02", "08-03", "08-04", "08-05", "08-06", "08-07", "08-08", "08-09", "08-10", "08-11", "08-12", "08-13", "08-14", "08-15", "08-16", "08-17", "08-18", "08-19", "08-20", "08-21", "08-22", "08-23", "08-24", "08-25", "08-26", "08-27", "08-28", "08-29", "08-30", "08-31", "09-01", "09-02", "09-03", "09-04", "09-05", "09-06", "09-07", "09-08", "09-09", "09-10", "09-11", "09-12", "09-13", "09-14", "09-15", "09-16", "09-17", "09-18", "09-19", "09-20", "09-21", "09-22", "09-23", "09-24", "09-25", "09-26", "09-27", "09-28", "09-29", "09-30" ], "not_a": [ "operational fishery forecast", "official management product", "fish-count conversion", "record probability", "forecast rank", "Run & River Observatory" ], "payload_hash": "d45d15e7c2a06916fd0d293f2afd1d5977185b302ff3d130c28df1898fe8786f", "preview_donors": { "2002": [ 0.67, 0.67, 0.67, 0.67, 1.34, 1.34, 1.34, 1.34, 1.8, 2.02, 2.02, 2.02, 2.69, 2.91, 3.58, 4.9, 5.25, 5.25, 6.22, 6.44, 6.44, 6.64, 7.29, 7.69, 8.59, 8.8, 9.72, 10.3, 11.92, 11.92, 13.82, 14.75, 16.27, 16.27, 16.89, 17.75, 18.38, 19.37, 20.7, 21.59, 24.77, 26.58, 27.42, 28.05, 30.33, 33.47, 37.37, 44.34, 50.38, 54.46, 58.63, 62.4, 66.49, 69.07, 71.93, 77.32, 83.74, 86.93, 91.84, 95.32, 96.34, 99.91, 106.64, 111.86, 117.58, 123.11, 128.32, 140.04, 147.61, 156.31, 161.42, 164.61, 168.89, 171.41, 174.76, 177.9, 183.81, 191.37, 195.36, 198.32, 201.51, 203.93, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52, 206.52 ], "2003": [ 0.23, 0.9, 1.35, 2.25, 2.59, 3.24, 3.24, 3.24, 3.24, 3.88, 4.77, 5.87, 6.36, 7.35, 7.99, 9.28, 9.49, 9.7, 9.7, 10.03, 10.03, 10.03, 10.03, 10.03, 10.24, 10.24, 10.67, 11.08, 11.08, 11.46, 11.46, 11.67, 11.88, 11.88, 11.88, 12.22, 12.54, 13.42, 13.63, 13.83, 13.83, 14.02, 14.45, 15.04, 16.78, 17.96, 19.28, 20.76, 22.87, 25.38, 27.06, 29.0, 31.63, 32.88, 34.96, 36.93, 37.84, 40.2, 42.22, 44.03, 45.98, 47.47, 49.47, 52.66, 56.39, 61.24, 65.24, 72.3, 74.34, 76.5, 78.53, 80.43, 81.65, 84.97, 87.27, 88.5, 91.88, 93.77, 95.74, 97.34, 98.62, 99.31, 100.34, 104.77, 105.23, 107.98, 109.67, 110.37, 111.49, 112.48, 114.81, 118.45, 118.45, 118.79, 120.96, 122.65, 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"Tyee completion tracker", "season_stories": [ { "accounts": [ { "class": "official_compilation", "label": "Guide logs", "text": "Babine guides reported 3,539 steelhead in 1,671 rod days." }, { "class": "peer_reviewed", "label": "Stock composition", "text": "Genetic assignments put Babine at 27% and Bulkley drainage at 31%." }, { "class": "anecdotal", "label": "Babine story", "text": "A second-hand oral account describes exceptional 10-fish days. Unverified." } ], "caution": "Guide records are self-reported. Creel encounters can include repeat captures. Neither measure is a Tyee-index conversion, and the 'arms hurt' line was not independently located.", "grade": "Official + peer-reviewed + oral history", "headline": "The folklore has a statistical spine. The most colourful line remains oral history.", "summary": "The 1998/99 guide table records 3,539 classified-water Babine steelhead over 1,671 rod days: 2.12 reported catches per rod day. A genetic study found Babine fish were 27% and Bulkley-drainage fish 31% of the sampled 1998 Skeena return. A Bulkley creel survey observed 676 released steelhead in 5,326 interview-hours.", "year": 1998 }, { "accounts": [ { "class": "official_stock_assessment", "label": "Moricetown", "text": "Stratified estimate 33,047; pooled estimator 41,140." }, { "class": "anecdotal", "label": "Weather turn", "text": "Contemporary reports describe 35 mm of rain in 24 hours ending a clear-water window." } ], "caution": "The stock assessment supports abundance. Fishing detail is anecdotal and partly commercial.", "grade": "Official + contemporary web accounts", "headline": "A huge return that could feel magical or nearly impossible depending on the weather window.", "summary": "The Moricetown program estimated 33,047 arrivals with its stratified model. Contemporary reports describe weeks of clear water followed by a late-season blowout.", "year": 2010 }, { "accounts": [ { "class": "official_compilation", "label": "Guide review", "text": "Highest total guided Skeena catch in the reviewed series." } ], "caution": "Elite guide logs can coexist with many anglers catching nothing.", "grade": "Creel + guide-report evidence", "headline": "The strongest guided-catch ledger in the reviewed series, with ordinary outcomes underneath it.", "summary": "The guide-data review identifies 2000/01 as the highest total guided Skeena steelhead catch in its series: 9,358. A Bulkley creel warned that its fixed-site rate was not river-wide.", "year": 2000 }, { "accounts": [ { "class": "official_mark_recapture", "label": "Moricetown", "text": "Estimate at least 25,289; later migrants were not represented." } ], "caution": "This is the first post-2002 season. It is in the primary donor pool, unlike 1998.", "grade": "Stock + guide-report evidence", "headline": "A major return in the first year of the current net regime.", "summary": "The Moricetown tagging estimate was 25,289 steelhead upstream of the canyon (20,596–33,941). Sampling stopped 27 September and missed later migration.", "year": 2002 }, { "accounts": [ { "class": "anecdotal", "label": "Babine diary", "text": "Entries describe extraordinary clusters and no-fish days." } ], "caution": "The diary is not an official creel and was not independently audited.", "grade": "Official use data + first-person diary", "headline": "A later-published diary is the closest public analog to the double-digit-day story.", "summary": "A purportedly contemporaneous 1984 Babine diary records both a 16-fish day and blank days.", "year": 1984 }, { "accounts": [ { "class": "official_mark_recapture", "label": "Population", "text": "Two estimates agree near 27,000–28,500; one interval is very wide." } ], "caution": "Guide catch is self-reported licence-year data, not a whole-river creel.", "grade": "Mark-recapture + guide reports", "headline": "Another large inventory year with thin surviving public narrative.", "summary": "A sport-fish mark-recapture estimate for autumn 1999 put 27,005 steelhead upstream of Moricetown Canyon (22,261–35,479).", "year": 1999 }, { "accounts": [ { "class": "official_mark_recapture", "label": "Moricetown", "text": "Second-largest Bulkley/Morice return in the 2001–2010 tagging series." }, { "class": "anecdotal", "label": "Daily texture", "text": "A contemporaneous blog distinguishes hookups from landings and records blank days." } ], "caution": "The blog totals are hookups, not unique fish or landings.", "grade": "Official estimate + contemporary blog", "headline": "A large modern Bulkley/Morice inventory with a surviving day-by-day account.", "summary": "The final Tyee index was 193.86. Moricetown mark-recapture estimated 27,484 Bulkley/Morice arrivals (22,097–37,856). A contemporaneous blog records feast-or-famine days.", "year": 2008 } ], "snapshot_hash": "36e7e2fb90f3e467cd1aba702f848f23ec46219e36bfd81dbc26d49661ccf471", "top_completed": [ { "gear_era": "pre-2002", "total": 265.68, "year": 1998 }, { "gear_era": "post-2002", "total": 233.92, "year": 2010 }, { "gear_era": "pre-2002", "total": 223.87, "year": 2000 }, { "gear_era": "post-2002", "total": 206.52, "year": 2002 }, { "gear_era": "pre-2002", "total": 200.36, "year": 1984 }, { "gear_era": "pre-2002", "total": 194.43, "year": 1999 }, { "gear_era": "post-2002", "total": 193.86, "year": 2008 }, { "gear_era": "post-2002", "total": 189.69, "year": 2016 }, { "gear_era": "post-2002", "total": 182.78, "year": 2018 }, { "gear_era": "post-2002", "total": 172.46, "year": 2012 } ] }