Official through 2026-08-15
156.53
Operated Tyee steelhead index
Tyee completion tracker · independent public-interest research
Skeena steelhead at Tyee
A concise reading of the official Tyee steelhead index and an independent completion estimate. This is not an operational fishery forecast, not a fish count, not a Run & River Observatory, and not a DFO, Province of BC, First Nations, or partner product.
Independent completion estimate
about 210
Post-2002 shape analog · 211.20
Frozen baseline
220.63
Same-date completion climatology
Historical completion
190–310
Descriptive · not a predictive interval
Official agency products remain authoritative. This page does not publish a forecast rank or an index-to-fish conversion.
Trajectory and historical comparison
2026 versus 1998 (pre-2002 net), 2008 (post-2002 net), and the long-run mean. The dashed path is an illustrative analog completion, not a validated travel-date forecast. DFO changed the Tyee net in 2002; 1998 is labeled context, not a donor.
2026 official
Analog path
1998 pre-2002
2008 post-2002
Long-run mean
Research
Descriptive association reporting is ready. None of the seven Holm-adjusted associations is below 0.05; the smallest is 0.06887862242755145. No timing candidate passed the predictive-usefulness gate, so TIMING-ECO-3 prediction is not ready and no retrospective champion was selected.
The generated TIMING-ECO-3 readiness packet remains the immutable pre-review record and stays locked. Public reporting uses the append-only adjudication ledger. Association reporting may be described as ready only because that ledger says so. That flag is report-readiness, not a statistically adjusted association claim, not prediction readiness, and not a selected champion. Holm-adjusted p-values below 0.05: 0 of 7.
Read the plain-language research summary · Methods and evidence
What stays unavailable
A visible unavailable state is better than a fabricated estimate.
Layer 1 · Aggregate Tyee run
research estimate
Official daily index, champion forecast, frozen baseline, descriptive range, tournament, ledger.
Layer 2 · Stock composition and reach inventory
unavailable
No 2026 stock or destination evidence. Named-reach inventory is not connected.
Layer 3 · River conditions and fishability
not connected
Flow, temperature, and clarity feeds are not connected. No fishability score is published.
Layer 4 · Encounter outlook
unavailable
No denominator-complete encounter panel exists. Catch-rate forecasts are not published.
Need the audit tables, tournament, and unofficial preview? Open the evidence dashboard.