Reviewed timing retrospective
A plan-frozen look at whether declared environmental series helped describe or predict observed Tyee-index timing. This is not a public forecast layer and is not part of the completion estimate above.
The current public number remains the issued Tyee completion estimate. The timing work is a separate retrospective. Label: outcome-unblinded, plan-frozen retrospective. Target: observed-index P50, not latent arrival, escapement, fish abundance, fishability, or angler success.
What may be said. Descriptive association reporting is ready. None of the seven Holm-adjusted associations is below 0.05. The smallest Holm-adjusted p-value is 0.06887862242755145 (air_canhomt_mean_c). No timing candidate passed the predictive-usefulness gate.
What may not be said. TIMING-ECO-3 prediction is not ready. No retrospective champion was selected. This result is not causation, not a driver claim, not a fish count, not stock-specific advice, and not agency endorsement.
observed_index_association_ready is true only as readiness to report the reviewed descriptive observed-index association results. None of the seven Holm-adjusted p-values is below 0.05; the smallest is the CanHomT air result at 0.06887862242755145. Readiness is not a claim that a statistically adjusted association exists. observed_index_prediction_ready remains false because predictive_usefulness_passed is false and no champion was selected. The modeled target remains observed-index P50.
The generated TIMING-ECO-3 readiness packet remains the immutable pre-review record and stays locked. Public reporting uses the append-only adjudication ledger. Association reporting may be described as ready only because that ledger says so. That flag is report-readiness, not a statistically adjusted association claim, not prediction readiness, and not a selected champion. Generated packet association-ready flag: false. Public ledger association-ready flag: true.
Locked claims remain locked: latent arrival, stock-specific statements, encounter rate, fish count, causal or driver language, management advice, agency endorsement, and observatory integration.