Official through
Operated observation
Tyee completion tracker · evidence dashboard
Skeena steelhead at Tyee
Deeper evidence view of the issued Tyee completion tracker. Not an operational fishery forecast, not a fish count, and not a Run & River Observatory. For the concise current state, start on the home page.
Champion estimate
Post-2002 shape analog
Frozen baseline
Same-date completion climatology
Historical completion
Descriptive · not a predictive interval
Trajectory
2026 versus 1998 (pre-2002), 2008 (post-2002), and the long-run mean. The dashed path is an illustrative analog completion, not a validated travel-date forecast.
2026 official
Analog path
1998
2008
Long-run mean
All-era raw-index charts mix two net regimes. DFO changed the Tyee net in 2002. 1998 is labeled context, not a donor.
1998 / 2008 / mean context
Scenario sensitivities
These are alternative historical timing stories, not votes and not probabilities.
| Scenario | Index |
|---|
Top completed seasons with a 2026 guide
Completed finals only. The 2026 line is a guide to the issued estimate. This page does not publish a forecast rank.
Evidence-graded season stories
Model tournament
Leave-one-season-out median absolute final-index error, post-2002 only. Hindcast surface, not prospective proof.
| Cutoff | Shape analog | Completion baseline |
|---|
Decision boundary
- The public number is the champion only while it beats the frozen baseline on the declared same-date score.
- A new official observation, a source correction, or a model-version change creates a new issue. Earlier issues stay in the ledger.
- 1998 and other pre-2002 seasons stay out of the primary donor pool unless an approved ADR changes that rule.
- Aug. 15 is an official Skeena steelhead decision milestone in the BC interim framework. This tracker does not convert the Tyee index into that abundance target.
- Layers 2–4 stay unavailable until they have their own target, source, and score.
Provenance and ledger
| Issue | Method | Point | Range | Status |
|---|
Broader layers
Limits
Unofficial local update preview
Paste later official-style rows. The preview never changes the issued record or verified series.
No local rows applied.
Preview current
—
Preview estimate
—
Completion history
—